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TL;DR
ES finally punched through the 6k ceiling after three weeks of chop between 5850 and 5987.
Yesterday handed traders a clinic in Failed Breakdowns, with five setups showing institutional accumulation.
Bulls lost the fight into Thursday's close, but recovered fast overnight, reclaiming 6k by Friday morning.
The breakout is real on paper, but the follow-through will determine if it's sustainable or just another fakeout.
We look into key setups, lessons from trailing stops, and how next week could shape.
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Quickfire Highlights
S&P Clears 6k, But Closes Weak
Friday's strength regained what Thursday gave up, but bulls still need to prove they can hold above.
TSLA Coils at Key Resistance
Watch for direction next week. Breakout targets 200, failure flushes back to 170s.
Options Gamma Pin Around 6k
Flow points to a possible magnet zone into OPEX week. Expect tight, reactive moves unless that breaks.
This is a high-volatility trending regime with strong participation. However, underneath the flash of the 6k breakout is a nervous tape. Institutions are active, but you can feel the market constantly testing conviction. Failed Breakdowns on Thursday showed accumulation, and Friday proved bulls could step in, but there's no smooth follow-through yet. Expect more stop-runs and reactive price action until directional clarity emerges next week.
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Failed Breakdowns
Five separate Failed Breakdowns triggered off the 5956–5975 zone Thursday.
Each had the same rhythm: break support slightly, trap shorts, reclaim level, and push.
Best example: 10am dip to 5956-61, reclaimed 5975, popped to 6008. Clean structure, easy risk-reward.
Trailing Stop Lessons
Using tighter-than-usual stops in fast conditions would've knocked you out too early.
Trailing below momentum candles was key. Get soft stops below breakout pivots, not hard ones mid-range.
Example: 5975 reclaim entry, trail under 5965 candle, not the wick. That kept you in for the 6014 top print.
Support: 5945. Below that, 5925 is make-or-break for bulls to hold structure.
Resistance: 6018–6025, which capped Friday’s rally. Big profit-taking zone.
The range was 5850–5987 for weeks. We’re now outside, but barely.
A daily close below 5975 next week would signal bull fatigue and could trigger a break back into the range.
No trade if we open in the dead middle of 5975–6005.
If we gap up and hold above 6018, you can look for momentum continuation targeting 6050 and 6075.
If we flush off the open to 5956-5970, watch for Failed Breakdown #6. That's the best structured trade until we get a cleaner trend.
Avoid chasing strength into resistance unless you’ve got high conviction or shortened targets. Tape is too reactive.
Week ahead: Stay reactive, not predictive. Structure is breaking out, but conviction is low. Trust setups, not headlines.
Disclaimer: This newsletter is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Please consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.