TL;DR
• Every headline dip since early April has been a buy, and the fresh “war flush” was no different.
• September ES futures reclaimed 6099, erasing the entire Thursday night slide.
• Price is boxed between 6081 resistance and 6027 support. A break sets the tone into quarter-end.
• Institutions keep waiting for emotional lows, scooping liquidity, then squeezing shorts. Ride the pattern, but respect the levels.
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Market Twists & Turns
Market Twists & Turns: Buy and Sell Opportunities You Can’t Afford to Miss
Quickfire Highlights
Overnight Gamma Pin
Option dealers are parked near 6 050, which can mute early volatility until size flow arrives.
Copper’s Quiet Rally
Three-week uptrend continues, hinting at reflation plays if the metal clears 4.75.
VIX Sub-12 Print
Complacency returns, setting up asymmetric reward for short-dated hedges.
Regime: Trending with shallow pullbacks. Buyers defend prior lows within one to three sessions. Volatility spikes fade quickly and the tape grinds higher on light volume.
Failed Breakdown at 6000
Thursday’s flush tagged 5 978, reclaimed 5 981, and sprinted 100 points. Same blueprint works if 6 027 fails intraday then recovers.
Retest of 6081 Ceiling
Price tagged this level three times. A fourth touch that closes above can trigger momentum buys to 6150.
Back-Test Short at 6150
If we gap through 6081 and stall near 6150, watch for exhaustion and a quick short back toward 6100.
Resistance: 6081, 6099, then 6150.
Support: 6027 initial, 6000 round number, 5978 war-flush low.
Trendlines: 20-day rising MA sits at 5995, still intact. Weekly trendline from March pivot aligns with 5970.
Base case: Look long on any quick wash into 6027 that snaps back. Stop ten points below 6000, target 6081 then trail.
Breakout case: If price opens and holds above 6099 for the first 30 minutes, join momentum for 6150, risk 20 points.
No-trade case: If we chop between 6040 and 6060 for two hours, stand aside. Preserve capital for a clear range break.
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Disclaimer: This newsletter is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Please consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.