TL;DR
FOMC fireworks fizzled into a flat close at the 6050 magnet, so price compression is extreme.
Buy-the-dip regime from early April remains intact, but the range since 5 June is razor sharp: 5979 support, 6099 resistance.
Yesterday’s failed breakdown at 6026 confirmed that trapped shorts still fuel fast legs higher.
Holiday hours tomorrow thin liquidity, so the first clean break of 5979 or 6099 likely runs hard.
Stay tactical: the next 50-to-80-point move should appear out of nowhere.
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Squeezed Semiconductor Shorts
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Crude Oil Drift
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Small-Cap Divergence
Russell 2000 printed a higher low while SPX stalled, hinting at risk-on rotation beneath the surface.
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We are in a well defined, mean-reverting box. Pullbacks to the lower quartile of the range find buyers within minutes, but upside extensions above 6099 get dumped just as fast. Volatility compression plus falling true range signals an imminent expansion. Volume clusters are building right at 6050, turning that print into the session’s “magnet.”
Failed Breakdown, Sunday Gap Type
Triggered at 6028 on the open, produced an 80-point run. Same pattern repeats if we tag 6018-6028 and reclaim 6040.
Range-Top Trap
A quick push to 6105 that fails back under 6099 opens scalp shorts targeting 6070 then 6050.
Base-Above-High
If we clear 6100 then consolidate above 6099 for thirty minutes, momentum longs activate with 6124 and 6142 targets.
Support: 6018 intraday pivot, 5979 range floor, 5950 FOMC panic print.
Resistance: 6099 range lid, 6124 weekly measured move, 6142 June composite VAH.
VWAP stack is flat, highlighting balance. Watch 6034 session VWAP, any reclaim after a dip is signal to flip long.
No holiday heroics. Liquidity will be thin, so I will only act on clear, textbook triggers. A flush to 6020 that springs back over 6034 is my A-setup long. A spike to 6105 that slams back under 6099 is my A-setup short. Inside the 6034-6099 band I will stay flat and protect mental capital.
Disclaimer: This newsletter is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Please consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.