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TL;DR
S&P futures just logged a five-day, 280-point sprint after breaking a two-week triangle.
Failed breakdown at 5970 last Sunday was the fuse, and funds kept buying every dip.
Seasonality favors more upside into July 4, yet the tape is stretched and liquidity thins.
Key pivot sits at 6208. Hold above that level and 6250 or even 6300 is on deck. Lose it and watch 6172 fast.
Trade the level, not the headline. Tariff chatter, Middle East noise, or quarter-end flows can all pop up, but price is king.
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Quickfire Highlights
Summer Gamma Flip
Options dealers shift from long to short gamma near 6200, so intraday swings may expand.
Oil’s Quiet Climb
WTI tagged 87 dollars, tightening the squeeze on transport and airlines ahead of earnings.
Small-Cap Catch-Up
Russell 2000 printed its first weekly close above the March highs, signaling risk appetite broadening.
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We are in a trending regime with high-momentum follow-through. Breakouts hold, pullbacks are shallow, and volume fades on red candles. Internals show 80 percent of S&P names above the 20-day moving average. The market is rewarding breakout buying and punishing short sellers who lean on news flow.
Failed Breakdown Retest
Price: 6208 to 6194. If futures dip into that shelf at the US cash open and reclaim 6208, look for a push toward 6250.
Back-Test Short
Should 6250 trade pre-market and fail to hold on the first 30-minute bar, fade back toward 6220 with tight risk.
Trendline Break in NQ
Nasdaq futures carved a channel from 19,400. Break above 19,580 opens 19,800. Lose 19,350 and the channel snaps, inviting tech profit-taking.
S&P Futures
Support: 6208, 6172, 6140
Resistance: 6250, 6275 gap extension, 6300 round number
Nasdaq Futures
Support: 19,350, 19,200
Resistance: 19,580, 19,800
VIX
Closed at 11.9. A print above 13 would warn that buyers are finally pausing.
Breadth
95 new highs versus 11 new lows on Friday. Watch for any negative divergence here.
Primary: Buy dips into 6208 or 6172 with a stop three points below each level, targeting 6250 and trail.
Secondary: Short a failed push above 6250 that closes back below 6245 on a five-minute bar, risk 10 points, target 6220.
If neither trigger hits, sit flat. Thin holiday liquidity can chop accounts.
Disclaimer: This newsletter is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Please consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.