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TL;DR
ESU25 is still a buy-the-dip regime, yet the range from 6099 to 5979 refuses to break cleanly.
Failed Breakdowns at 5978 and 6000 have fueled every bounce since last Thursday. Institutions are still stalking liquidity pockets.
FOMC tomorrow means headline whipsaws, but watch the market’s reaction to 6050 and 6099 rather than the words themselves.
Bond volatility keeps creeping higher, so keep risk tight and size smaller into the announcement.
The next trend leg starts only after the range border gives way, so plan for both scenarios.
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Quickfire Highlights
Middle East Escalation
Oil spikes back above 81, yet ES shrugged it off overnight, hinting at underlying dip demand.
Gamma Flip Watch
Dealer exposure turns negative below 6030, opening the door to outsized moves if that level snaps.
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Vol crush hinted by falling IV, but price still grinds higher, suggesting funds are accumulating into weakness.
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Regime: Trending with a broad bullish tilt, yet currently trapped in a two-week range. Price respects mean-reversion inside 6099 to 5979, then pushes impulsively once edges get reclaimed. Volume is thin midday and spikes on news drops, so expect fragmented liquidity pockets until the FOMC clears.
• Failed Breakdown 5978 to 6000: Two tags, two rebounds, clear institutional footprint. Any third test likely offers diminishing edge, so reduce size if it reappears.
• Retest of 6099 Range High: Momentum longs only if we see a five-minute close above 6105, otherwise fade moves that stall near prior highs.
• 6050 Pivot Chop: Scalps only, wait for a fake-out below and reclaim for long entries, or a clean breach and retest for shorts.
• Post-FOMC First Move Fake: Classic play, initial spike often reverses within fifteen minutes. Have orders ready on both sides of the initial impulse but keep stop distance tight.
Daily Resistance: 6099, then 6125. Weekly target 6180 if Fed comes in dovish.
Daily Support: 6050 is today’s battle line. Break that and 6027, 6000, and 5978 follow quickly.
Trendlines: Rising channel from 5-May lows still intact, bottom line sits near 6020.
Vol Pockets: 6081 to 6099 thin air, meaning a breach can accelerate to 6125 fast.
Pre-FOMC: Scalps only inside 6099 to 6050, respect widening spreads and stay light.
Into Announcement: Flatten to core swing only, no fresh intraday risk unless price is hugging either extreme.
Post-FOMC:
1. If we break and hold above 6105, ride momentum for 6125, then trail stops aggressively.
2. If 6027 snaps on the downside, target 6000 first, 5978 second, watch for another Failed Breakdown to reload longs.
No trade is also a position. If the range persists after the event, sit on hands until clarity returns.
- Fed Poised to Signal Slower Pace of Rate Cuts as Inflation Persists (Bloomberg, Jun 17 2025)
- Wall Street Steadies as Investors Brace for Fed Decision (Reuters, Jun 17 2025)
- Bond Yields Drift Lower Ahead of Fed Meeting (WSJ, Jun 16 2025)
- Oil Prices Bounce on Supply Shocks, but Traders Eye Fed Guidance (MarketWatch, Jun 16 2025)
- Tech Megacaps Lift Nasdaq Futures in Busy Week for Fed and Earnings (CNBC, Jun 17 2025)
Disclaimer: This newsletter is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Please consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.