•   The market broke its multi-day support at 6851/6862, triggering a sharp, predictable drop.

•   Sellers pushed down to 6750, but the move wasn't a clean break. Instead, it set the stage for a reversal.

•   A classic failed breakdown at 6766 trapped shorts, igniting a powerful squeeze that ran all day.

•   We've now returned to the scene of the crime, the 6851 breakdown level, which is the key battleground for the next session.

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The 6850 Breakdown  

Monday evening showed us why you don't need to guess. When a well-tested support level fails, the path of least resistance becomes lower.

The 6766 Reclaim  

A perfect example of an edge. We anticipated a flush, waited for price to reclaim the level, and it triggered a 90+ point rally.

We are in a volatile, reactive market. The recent price action is not a clean trend. It is a battle for control. After breaking down from a consolidation range, the market showed no follow-through to the downside. Instead, it punished sellers with a violent squeeze. This behavior rewards patience and punishes chasing. Failed moves are the primary catalyst right now, so focus on what happens at ke y levels, not on predicting the next big direction.

•   The Breakdown Short: This was the play on Monday evening below 6850. When a clear, multi-day support level like 6851/6862 fails to hold, it presents a high-probability short opportunity targeting the next support zone. These are rare in uptrends, but powerful when they appear.

•   The Failed Breakdown and Reclaim: This was the long setup that triggered last night. Price flushed below support at 6766 but did not accelerate lower. It quickly reclaimed the level, trapping shorts and signaling that the selling pressure was exhausted. This is a core setup, and it played out perfectly for the run back to 6851.

•   The Back-Test: Today's price action ran directly into 6851, the level we broke down from. This is a classic back-test. Sellers are trying to defend this old support as new resistance. The reaction here will tell us a lot about who is in control.

The structure has been reset. We are back at a major inflection point.

•   Key Resistance / Pivot: 6851-6862. This is the most important zone. It was the floor for days, and now bulls must reclaim it to continue higher. If sellers hold strong here, another leg down is likely.

•   Next Resistance Up: 6948. If bulls can clear the 6862 area, this is the next major target, representing the high of the prior consolidation range.

•   Initial Support: 6815-6818. This zone acted as a minor hurdle on the way up and could provide support on a small pullback.

•   Major Support: 6766. This is the level where the squeeze began. Bulls must defend this area on any significant dip to maintain the current upward momentum. A loss of this level would put bears back in control.

The plan for tomorrow is centered entirely on the 6851/6862 zone. We are back at ground zero.

My approach is to wait and react. I am not picking a side here. The battle will show us the winner. If bulls can push through 6862 and hold, the path to 6948 opens up. If price is rejected firmly from this zone, it presents a potential short opportunity back down towards 6766.

Stay patient. The easy money on the squeeze has been made. Now we wait for the market to give us the next clear signal. There is no need to force a trade in the middle of this inflection point.

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Disclaimer: This newsletter is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Please consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.