In partnership with
TL;DR
ES spent four weeks boxed between 5 850 and 6 000, finally broke topside Friday, and held above 6 000 all day Monday.
Volatility collapsed, signaling passive accumulation rather than panic-driven chase.
Every surge began with a failed breakdown that trapped shorts at 5 925 and 5 975. Learn to spot that pattern, and you own the day.
Breadth is still thin, so leadership matters. Think semis, mega-cap tech, and recently revived cyclicals.
Tomorrow’s pre-market has CPI and PPI revisions. Liquidity will be light before the print, then fireworks on surprise.
Stay ahead with insights from our partnered newsletters that can help you navigate the markets. Subscribe here
Quickfire Highlights
AI Chip Trio (NVDA, AMD, AVGO)
Call buyers stayed active into the close while implied vols drifted, a classic tell of steady institutional demand.
Crude Crack
WTI slipped under 77 and failed to reclaim, giving refiners another tailwind if the slide continues.
Biotech Bounce
XBI tagged a six-month trendline at 88 and fired a 3 percent intraday reversal, big volume behind it.
Sponsored
Market Twists & Turns
Market Twists & Turns: Buy and Sell Opportunities You Can’t Afford to Miss
Regime: Trending up, but volatility compression signals late-stage grind. The tape rewards dip buying at micro support and punishes chasers above short-term extremes.
Find out why 1M+ professionals read Superhuman AI daily.
In 2 years you will be working for AI
Or an AI will be working for you
Here's how you can future-proof yourself:
Join the Superhuman AI newsletter – read by 1M+ people at top companies
Master AI tools, tutorials, and news in just 3 minutes a day
Become 10X more productive using AI
Join 1,000,000+ pros at companies like Google, Meta, and Amazon that are using AI to get ahead.
Failed Breakdown at 5 925 (Thursday overnight): Classic flush and recovery, launched first leg to 5 975.
Failed Breakdown at 5 975 (Friday pre-cash): Same playbook, squeezed price to the 6 000 neckline.
Range Break and Hold at 6 000: Monday consolidation created a new floor; look for either continuation through 6 050 or a quick failure back to 5 975.
Crude Oil Double Top: 78.60 twice rejected; below 77.00 keeps pressure on energy names.
S&P Futures (ES)
Resistance: 6 029, 6 047-6 050 gap fill, 6 072 ATH extension.
Support: 6 000 psychological, then 5 975 failed break pivot, 5 925 structural shelf.
VIX: 11.90 pivot, a close above 13.50 would warn that volatility expansion is underway.
Treasuries: 10-yr at 4.17 pivot, break below 4.10 would aid growth trades.
Dollar Index: 103.20 resistance caps risk appetite; above that, equities could stall.
Primary: Buy first retest of 6 000-6 005 with stop below 5 975, target 6 047 then 6 072.
Alternative: If CPI shocks hot and ES gaps down through 5 975, fade first rally into 5 975-5 990, target 5 925.
No-Trade Zone: 6 010-6 029 during pre-CPI drift; noise outweighs edge.
Disclaimer: This newsletter is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Please consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.