• ES spent fourteen sessions pinging between 5978 and 6081, then ripped through resistance late Monday.  

• Breakout fuel came from textbook failed breakdowns at 5978 and a Middle East headline flush that trapped shorts.  

• Price tagged 6099, 6124, and 6143 overnight and is now hovering above the old ceiling.  

• Trend remains up, but fresh longs need a pullback or an intraday base above 6081.  

• Stay patient, let the market hand you the next failed breakdown or back-test long.

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NVDA reclaim: Chip king reclaimed its 20-day after a three-day fade, suggesting rotation back into semis.  

WTI coil: Crude compressed into a three-day inside bar near 82.50, watch for a range break that could kick risk sentiment.  

TNX stall: Ten-year yield rejected 4.40 again, giving growth names room to breathe. 

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Regime: Trending with expansion. Two weeks of range compression released energy in one session, delivering a high-volume breakout. Breadth improved with 71 percent of S&P names green. VIX slid under 12, pointing to complacency, yet vol crush often sustains melt-ups before the inevitable shakeout.

• Failed Breakdown Reload  

  Price dipped to 5970 Sunday night, reclaimed 5978, and never looked back. If ES gifts 6081 or 6050 taps, look for the same pattern: quick flush, higher low, reclaim, and go.  

• Breakout Retest Long  

  6081 was resistance for fourteen days. A controlled pullback into this level that holds for thirty minutes gives a low-risk entry with stops under 6065.  

• Momentum Continuation  

  If buyers skip the retest and punch through 6143 during cash hours, momentum traders can ride to 6169 or 6188 using a five-minute higher-low trail.  

• Back-Test Short (only if price fails)  

  A full-length rejection back under 6050 opens room to 6020 support, but fade shorts quickly while the primary trend points higher.

Daily support: 6050 magnet, 5978 anchor, 5940 line-in-the-sand for bulls.  

Daily resistance: 6143 recent high, 6169 swing projection, 6188 measured-move target.  

Trendlines: Rising 20-day MA at 6033, rising 50-day MA at 5902.  

Breadth zone: Watch NYSE advancers under 55 percent for signs of exhaustion.  

Liquidity windows: 9:45-10:15 ET opening drive, 14:00-15:30 ET afternoon surge.

Base case: Wait for a dip into 6081-6050, stalk a failed breakdown long with stops five points below the session low. First targets: 6124 then 6143.  

Momentum case: If ES opens above 6130 and holds, trade a five-minute opening range breakout, trail aggressively.  

Fade case: Only consider shorts if price loses 6050 on heavy volume. Target 6020 then 5995. Tight risk, small size.  

No trade: If price chops between 6090 and 6120 with low volume, step aside and protect mental capital.

1. S&P 500 hits fresh record as tech leadership returns  

2. Oil traders brace for potential supply shock after Gulf tensions flare  

3. Treasury yields slip as investors weigh Fed speakers and data slate  

4. Nvidia snaps three-day skid amid renewed AI hardware demand  

5. Volatility index drops toward multi-year lows despite macro risks

Disclaimer: This newsletter is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Please consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.