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TL;DR
Two weeks of 5978-6099 chop have built a textbook descending triangle. Pressure is building, and resolution is near.
Every Middle East headline flush has triggered a Failed Breakdown, giving institutions three straight lucrative reloads at the same spot.
6050 remains the intraday magnet, but price is now crowding the upper wall. The longer it sticks, the more energy stacks for a breakout.
A clean close above 6099 targets 6124 and 6143. Failure back under 6050 re-opens 6020 and 5980.
My bias stays long on Failed Breakdowns, but a breakout or breakdown will demand faster execution and tighter stops.
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The index is still in a grinding uptrend, but the last two weeks shifted to tight mean-reversion inside a descending triangle. Volume keeps drying up at midpoint 6050 and expanding when we tag either wall. Traders are clearly fading extremes until a headline forces commitment.
Setups in Focus
Failed Breakdown at 5970-5982
Three straight triggers, each produced 80-100 handles. Same game plan if we flush that area again.
Triangle Breakout Watch
A 6100 print that holds on a five-minute retest opens quick scalps to 6124 or 6143.
Back-Test Short at 6099
If we pop 6105 then slip back under 6099, look for a fast mean reversion toward 6050.
Upside: 6099 (range top), 6124 (March pivot), 6143 (measured move), 6175 (ATH extension).
Downside: 6050 (magnet), 6020 (VWAP cluster), 5982-5970 (triple bottom), 5945 (gap start).
Trendlines: Descending triangle roof connects 6170 and 6099. Rising trendline from April low sits at 5980. Break of either line likely ends the stalemate.
Upside: 6099 (range top), 6124 (March pivot), 6143 (measured move), 6175 (ATH extension).
Downside: 6050 (magnet), 6020 (VWAP cluster), 5982-5970 (triple bottom), 5945 (gap start).
Trendlines: Descending triangle roof connects 6170 and 6099. Rising trendline from April low sits at 5980. Break of either line likely ends the stalemate.
1. Opening above 6081: Will probe long on first one-minute higher low. Stop under 6068. Primary target 6124.
2. Gap into 6020-6030: Sit on hands until either 6035 reclaims or 5980 flushes. Then hunt the familiar Failed Breakdown long.
3. No position if we pin 6050 with low energy. That print favors chop and death by a thousand paper cuts.
Mindset: One big trade beats four forced chops. Size down until range resolves, then press momentum when volatility returns.
- Cease-Fire Talks Stall, Sending Brent Above 90 – Bloomberg, Jun 22 2025
- Fed Officials Signal Openness to September Cut – Reuters, Jun 21 2025
- S&P 500 Earnings Growth Set to Accelerate in Q3 – MarketWatch, Jun 23 2025
- Nvidia Unveils Next-Gen AI Chip, Shares Rally – CNBC, Jun 20 2025
- Treasury Curve Steepens as Supply Concerns Ease – Wall Street Journal, Jun 19 2025
Disclaimer: This newsletter is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Please consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.