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TL;DR
Israel–Iran headlines punched ES down to 5 925 last night, but futures clawed back 100+ points by the Asia open.
The inverse head-and-shoulders neckline at 6 000 held again, reinforcing the “flush, trap, squeeze” regime.
Failed breakdowns remain the only high-probability long setup on the board; everything else is noise for now.
Bears need a decisive close under 5 900 to flip control; until then, dips into 5 940-5 900 keep offering asymmetric risk-reward.
Monday’s game plan: let price test support first, then stalk confirmation on the reclaim.
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Quickfire Highlights
Iran hedges crude exports in size
Large call spread opened in Brent options, suggesting producers fear upside volatility.
Gamma flip at 6 050
Dealer positioning shows negative gamma above 6 050, opening door for outsized moves if that level is reclaimed.
NVDA weekly put sweep
Thirty-four million notional in 105-delta puts expires today, hinting at tech hedging into Fed blackout.
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The S&P future is stuck in a liquidity-seeking range, 5920 to 6080. Every news spike has been faded within hours, so we are in a mean-reverting regime inside a larger weekly uptrend. Vol compression is creeping in, but headline risk keeps realized volatility elevated intraday.
Failed Breakdown, 5926
Friday’s overnight flush under last week’s 5929 low trapped shorts. Long triggered on the reclaim, target remains 6060-6080.
Back-test Short, 6075
If price tags 6 075 and stalls under the prior day VAH, look for a rotational short back to 6000. Needs exhausted momentum plus delta divergence.
Trendline Break, Russell 2000
RTY is coiling under a three-month descending trendline. A close above 2 020 triggers momentum longs toward 2 080.
Daily supply: 6080-6120, site of multiple failed breakouts and heavy call gamma.
Neckline support: 6000. Lose it on volume and the inverse H&S thesis weakens.
Liquidity shelf: 5940-5900, prior value low and VWAP cluster from April.
Crude pivot: 78.30. Holds key to inflation expectations and equity factor rotations.
Open inside Friday value: Sit on hands. Wait for either 6075 test for a fade or 5940 flush for a failed breakdown long.
Gap up above 6080: Do not chase. Look for exhaustion candles then fade back into the range.
Gap down into 5900: Watch order-flow for capitulation. If buyers defend, scale into a long with stop under 5880 and aim for 6020.
No trade if price chops between 6020-6060 mid-range. Protect capital and keep bullets for extremes.
Disclaimer: This newsletter is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Please consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.